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Are We There Yet

Chasing Numbers in New Hampshire
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By Carol Einarsson | 09/17/2010
Category: Are We There Yet
 

Denny Hamlin jumped nine spots in the points standings this week. He also has nine starts at Loudon. He has one win and six top-tens.

Jimmie Johnson gained five spots in the points this week. He's also raced more than five thousand miles at Loudon. In 17 starts, he has 3 wins and 12 top-tens.

Kevin Harvick lost two spots in the points with the reset. He also has tallied more than two million dollars in winnings. In 19 starts, he has one win and ten top-ten finishes.

Kyle Busch dropped one spot in the points. He also has one win at New Hampshire. In 11 starts, he also has 5 top-tens.

Kurt Busch moved up three spots to start The Chase. He has three wins here. He has 19 starts (eight more than his brother) and 10 top-ten finishes (double that of Shrub.)

Tony Stewart dropped two spots from last week. Coincidentally, he has two wins here. And in his 23 starts, he has 14 top-tens.

Greg Biffle gained four spots this week. He has four top-five finishes, has raced more than four thousand laps, and claimed one win.

Jeff Gordon fell six positions in the points to start The Chase. Six is also the number of his combined wins and poles, with three each. He has 31 starts here.

Carl Edwards lost four places for The Chase. While he has 12 starts, two top-tens, and 10 lead-lap finishes, I can find no stats at all that correspond with the number four.

Jeff Burton sunk four spots. He has four wins among 31 races. He also has 13 top-tens.

Matt Kenseth dropped two places this week. He's won more than two million dollars at this track. In 21 starts, he has no wins and 11 top-tens.

Clint Bowyer hung on to 12th in points, neither gaining nor losing any positions. He's been in nine races at New Hampshire, and has been running at the finish nine times. He has one win, one pole, and one top-five finish. He's an all-around equal kinda guy.

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Comments:
qhorque
09/17/2010 12:34 pm (1)
I disagree with the standings and positional movements that Carol and seemingly every other sportswriter is noting.

Because there are 12 drivers does not mean there are actually 12 positions in which to move. There are technically only 6 current positions of which several drivers are tied. There are NOT 12 distinctive positions.

Hamlin is 1st
Johnson is 2nd
Harvick and Kyle Busch are 3rd
Kurt Busch is 4th
Stewart and Biffle are 5th
Gordon, Edwards, Burton, Kenseth, and Boyer are 6th.

There are only 6 positions.

So, based on the actual math involved, the drivers have actually moved the following number of positions at the end of the Race For The chase:

Hamlin +8 (9->1)
Johnson +3 (5->2)
Harvick -2 (1->3)
Ky Busch -1 (2->3)
Ku Busch +6 (10->4)
Stewart +1 (6->5)
Biffle +7 (12->5)
Gordon -3 (3->6)
Edwards -2 (4->6)
Burton +1 (7->6)
Kenseth +2 (8->6)
Boyer 0 (12->12)

ONLY if the season ended today would they have to rank them differently based on tie-breaker rules. Otherwise, the 12 drivers are currently only filling 6 spots and that is how they should be reported.
giluvracing
09/17/2010 2:28 pm (2)
If you indeed had a "win and you're in" format, then, logically, you should rank your Chasers as follows: Number of wins, number of seconds, number of thirds, and so forth. Each tiebreaker would be the number of next-lowest finishes. I took a lap thru the current year's results, and here are the top-12, according to my calculations:

1 - Hamlin (6 win)
2 - Johnson (5 win)
3 - Harvick (3 win, 4 2nd)
4 - Kyle Busch (3 win, 2 2nd)
5 - McMurray (2 win, 3 2nd)
6 - Kurt Busch (2 win, 1 2nd)
7 - Stewart (1 win, 3 2nd)
8 - Reutimann (1 win, 1 2nd)
9 - Biffle (1 win, 0 2nd, 2 3rd, 2 4th)
10 - Montoya (1 win, 0 2nd, 2 3rd, 0 4th)
11 - Newman (1 win, 0 2nd, 0 3rd, 1 4th)
12 - J. Gordon (0 win, 2 2nd, 4 3rd)
13 (DNQ) - Edwards (0 win, 2 2nd, 2 3rd)
14 (DNQ) - Kahne (0 win, 2 2nd, 0 3rd)

Out of the money, according to this scenario, would also be Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., none of whom had more than two second-place finishes to help their zero wins.

I know that this system has the proverbial snowball's chance of being adopted, but on the surface, it looks pretty fair. It rewards both wins and high non-winning finishes. You'd lose such things as bonus points for leading laps and leading the most laps, but c'est la vie.

--Mike.
eddo
09/17/2010 3:10 pm (3)
@qhorque:

as I understand it (and we all know how I am always right...) there actually isn't a tie for any of the positions. (kinda like in giluvracing's scenerio)

Sure the point total's are the same, but much like any other position, when there is a point tie- the tiebreaker reverts to number of wins, then number of second places, then number of third places, etc. until an advantage can be found between one driver or the other.

So yeah, Gordon, Edwards, Burton, Kenseth, and Boyer all have the same points, but they are ranked (I think) based on their highest finishing positions.

I think. :)


and @ giluvracing-
no that will never be adopted.
it makes too much sense.
Mallards Motorsports
09/17/2010 3:22 pm (4)
@qhorque,

Bowyer still goes up 6 (12 > 6) right???
...and 6 positions perhaps as you say but I guess I see 8...KuBu is in 5th as 4 drivers are ahead of him in points; Happy and Bif tied for 6th and Gordon et al in 8th....

@giluvracing (and, doh, I read that as "gill-of-racing" for like a year before I got it);

I kinda like your system. I guess there are many ways to do the chase...seems like they could add up points for each race and then after 36 races declare a champion...nah they'd never go for that...
mikeyfan
09/17/2010 3:46 pm (5)
Agree with Mallard....
Dump the phony chase.
Go back to the old system... because it worked !
Modification to the old system:
-50 bonus points for a win.
(That may make them race harder)
-No points awarded for finishing lower than 30th. Or, 30th back all get the same points.
(Get's the wrecked cars off the track, and damaged/lousy cars that can't catch the 30th place car with 'X' laps left, get black-flagged)
qhorque
09/17/2010 3:58 pm (6)
eddo, you are simply spelling out the scenario that everyone is stating to which I disagree - the standings are apparently set according to tie-breaker rules which, since the season is not over nor have any of the Chase races actually been run, there are no applications of tie-breakers and both Harvick and Kyle start with the same number of points and are, for all intents and purposes, as well as mathematically, in 3rd place. NO advantage goes to Harvick regardless of prior races/standings. That's my point.

Similar to the Olympics, if one person wins and two people tie for second, there are only Gold and Silver medals give. No bronze is awarded.

So they may be ranked 1-12 but really sit in 1-6.

Mallard, yeah I typed Bowyer's numbers wrong. You are right. He's gone from 12->6.
Mallards Motorsports
09/17/2010 5:02 pm (7)
@mikeyfan,

Yes after we go back to the old (correct) way more points for the win (and top 5s and top 10s IMO) and token points only for the bottom rung is the way to go...
mikeyfan
09/17/2010 7:18 pm (8)
@Mallards (7)

...nah.. won't work.
Make's too much sense.

The 'napkin' issue worked for so very many years.
I am a HUGE believer in "Don't fix what ain't broke."
Apparently, Brian France and I disagree on that.

NASCAR is NOT 'stick and ball' sports. It is a sport unto itself. Trying to run it like something that it isn't is a ticket to doom.

If you really want the people to come, then you better give the people what they want.

NOT a quote, but I would bet that P.T.Barnum said something like that.

At the present rate of decline, one generation after Brian, the question of the day will be: "Anyone remember NASCAR ?"
giluvracing
09/18/2010 5:30 am (9)
@Mallards: It was supposed to be "G I Luvracing," but I keyed it in wrong when I signed up. Fortunately, the smarter fans seem to have picked up on it, so thanks for that!

@Mikeyfan: I've long advocated the idea of making 25th on back (or 30th, I'm not picky) pay the same number of points. It would cut down on the "rolling wrecks" that we get at most tracks. This would also cut down on debris cautions.

Again...makes too much sense.

--Mike.
Mr. O
09/18/2010 12:17 pm (10)
I've heard that NASCAR is thinking about some kind of elimination format, so here is my idea for the chase:

After 26 races, anyone not within 1950 points of the lead is eliminated.


This figure goes down by 195 every race until the last race, when everyone who is not within 195 points is eliminated.

eddo
09/19/2010 12:15 am (11)
Mr.O-
yeah, and I'm hearing a whole lot about how they are gonna start with 16 drivers...

16....

Seriously? 16?

here's an idea:
Just before the Daytona 500, start everyone with the same amount of points, and 36 races alter see who has the most. Then DQ him, and everyone else who finishes ahead of Dale Jr and just declare him the champ...


or!

After 25 races, take all the drivers below 20th in points or don't have a victory and shoot them in the gas pedal foot with a .44 Magnum. after 30 races, shoot everyone below 10th in points. then pick off 2 a race til the champ is decided. You wanna see some racers racing like they mean it? That'll do it. :)


I really, really, wish they would quit messing with it.
Carol
09/19/2010 6:50 pm (12)
giluvracing,
You want me to fix it, or are you now comfy with this version of your name? Just lemme know because I think it's something we can fix pretty easily.

C
giluvracing
09/21/2010 8:46 am (13)
@Carol:

Let's hold it for a while. I need to update my e-mail address with TimeWarner Cable (long story). When I do that, I'll sign on with a (more) corrected name. But thanx 4 the offer!!

--Mike.

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